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Still to be decided: America East (Boston University/Albany), Southland (Texas State/McNeese State/Sam Houston State), Big South (Coastal Carolina/Charleston Southern), SWAC (Jackson State/Mississippi Valley State).

All seeds hosting

1. California: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Alabama: Notre Dame, South Alabama, UT-Martin
3. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
6. Tennessee: North Carolina, UAB, BIG SOUTH
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, Bethune-Cookman
8. Oregon: Syracuse, Boston University, Portland State
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, LIU
10. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
11. Arizona: Texas Tech, BYU, Iona
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Northwestern, Miami (OH)
13. Missouri: DePaul, Auburn, Illinois State
14. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
15. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, SWAC
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, FGCU

Last five in: Northwestern, Arkansas, Houston, UCF, UAB
First five out: Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, Purdue, Fresno State

Northwestern gets to .500 after sweeping Illinois. Wildcats played 42 of 54 games against RPI top-100 teams and 24 games against top-50 teams. Only Arkansas can match the top-50 number among the teams closest to the bubble. Northwestern’s wins against Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and UMass, along with late momentum (8-2 in last 10 games) put it over the top.

I’ve gone back and forth on Arkansas and Maryland. Arkansas seems like the product of conference strength — play enough games against SEC RPI giants and you pick off some wins, in this case three against the RPI top 25 and two against the RPI top 10. You can spin a 3-14 record against the RPI top 25 a lot of ways. I’d probably spin it another way, but in projecting what the committee is most likely to do, those wins carry weight.

Using strongest remaining seeds and/or teams in best championship position in one-bid leagues.

1. California: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Alabama: Notre Dame, South Alabama, UT-Martin
3. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
6. Tennessee: North Carolina, UAB, Radford
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, Bethune-Cookman
8. Oregon: Syracuse, BYU, Portland State
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, LIU
10. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
11. Arizona: Texas Tech, Boston University, Iona
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Maryland, Central Michigan
13. Missouri: DePaul, Auburn, Illinois State
14. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, Mississippi Valley State
15. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, FGCU/Kennesaw

Last in: South Alabama, Arkansas, Maryland, Houston, UCF
First out: Illinois, Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin,

Flipping Alabama/ASU for now, although that’s still fluid. ASU is 4-4 vs. RPI top 10, 14-6 vs. RPI top 25. Alabama is 4-2 vs. RPI top 10, 10-4 vs. RPI top 25. Flip of the coin.

Not sold on Florida State as the No. 16 after it fails to win either ACC regular season or conference tournament, but a loss to No. 25 Georgia Tech in ACC semis (score notwithstanding) doesn’t seem like an RPI killer. Assuming Seminoles were ahead beforehand, and with Washington on its Pac-12 bye week, things may not change even if common sense suggests it should.

Bumping Illinois out after two losses against Northwestern, along with South Alabama picking up two more top-100 wins in reaching Sun Belt final.

Flipping UCLA and Arizona from previous projection after UCLA splits first two at Oregon and Arizona splits first two at home vs. Oregon State.

Also correcting the conference flub in the previous projection that had two ACC teams in Knoxville.

A quick projection before conference tournaments hit full swing. All seeds hosting regionals this year.

1. California: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
3. Alabama: Notre Dame, UAB, UT-Martin
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Tennessee: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Radford
6. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, FGCU
8. Oregon: Syracuse, BYU, Portland State/Saint Mary’s
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, Robert Morris
10. Arizona: Texas Tech, Boston University, Iona
11. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Maryland, Ball State
13. Missouri: DePaul, Illinois, Northern Iowa
14. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, Mississippi Valley State
15. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, Delaware State

Last in: Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland
First out: Kansas, South Alabama, Purdue, Wisconsin

Molly Lester

Molly Lester warms up before the national championship game.

KENNESAW, Ga. — Molly Lester’s story could easily be about what might have been.

It’s just that once you’re done chronicling what is for the fifth-year senior, there doesn’t seem to be much time left for the maybes and mights.

In addition to some posters that aren’t as profound as they seemed freshman year and some overdue library books, at least if she’s anything like most college students, Lester will leave Duke with more than memories in tow. She’ll take away an undergraduate degree in history, magna cum laude, with minors in English and French. She’ll exit with a master’s in management, part of a one-year program from Duke’s Fuqua School of Business that is the subject of buzz in the business world the same way the Blue Devils are in the soccer world.

On the soccer field, she will leave with at least six goals to her credit. Even if she doesn’t add to the total Sunday against Stanford, she may well leave with a national championship, the first in the history of the Duke program.

It’s a good haul for five years, but it hasn’t come easily. And not just the part in French.

Lester will also leave Durham with a left knee that required ACL surgery before she ever set foot on campus, costing her what would have been her freshman season in 2007, and microfracture surgery before her junior year, forcing her to the sideline for the second time in three seasons. Someone who arrived in Durham as a top-100 recruit, and who remains as athletically gifted as almost any player on the roster, even with the knee of a veteran NFL lineman, will leave knowing forces beyond her control took away dozens of goals and a starting spot, not to mention all those hours spent in the tedium of rehabilitation that could have been put to more frivolous use.

Or, given Lester’s curious insistence on productivity, perhaps another minor.

Considering she played sparingly as a defensive reserve in the only one of those first three seasons in which she was healthy, or at least a close approximation thereof, sticking around for an extra season wasn’t a given when her fourth campaign began in 2010. Why stick around to endure more punishment and disappointment? But finally able to stay on the field, she started 20 games and appeared in all 23 the Blue Devils played a season ago. She scored her first career goal in the opener at Georgia, not far from her Atlanta home, and finished with four goals and four assists.

Molly Lester (No. 15)

Molly Lester chases a goal vs. Houston

“Last year I felt like I finally found my step again,” Lester said. “I felt good, the knee felt good. And I wasn’t sure if I was going to be able to commit to a fifth year [before that season]. I wasn’t sure what my knee was going to do, I wasn’t sure what my playing time was going to be. I ended up finding my groove and felt like I had more to give.”

Again, it wouldn’t be quite that easy. A productive starter for a team that reached the Sweet 16, Lester could reasonably have felt entitled to a starting spot if she returned for a fifth season. Surely, she had earned at least that much for her sweat and suffering. But with the arrival of uber-gifted striker Kelly Cobb from Alaska, Duke had a glut of talented forwards. Cobb came off the bench for the first weekend of the regular season, but her starting spot was a fait accompli from the moment she signed with the Blue Devils. Lester was the odd woman out, a reserve behind a freshman and two sophomores.

None of it came as a surprise. She isn’t dumb (see: cum laude, magna), and Church didn’t hide anything in discussing her options for returning. She simply made it clear that she wanted to come back in whatever role was available to her. The result is she’s played nearly 900 minutes this season, making six starts and 19 appearances off the bench, and scored twice.

The Blue Devils may not start any seniors, but don’t confuse that fact with a lack of seniors to look up to, even if they seem generously listed at 5-foot-4.

“She’s just a leader on and off the field,” midfielder Kaitlyn Kerr said. “She’s always getting us ready before practices, before games. She’s kind of like the mother of the team, always keeping us in check. And when she comes out there, her tenacity on the field is just contagious. She always comes out with great high pressure and just sets a tone.”

There is a photo from the aftermath of Duke’s quarterfinal win against Long Beach State that shows Lester walking off the field, hands frozen in mid-clap and a wide smile lighting up her face. Not only was she going to the College Cup, something no group of Duke players had done since 1992, but she was going to a College Cup played in Kennesaw, Ga., almost literally in her backyard.

“I think that’s why we all coach is to see those type of moments,” Church said. “She’s been a fantastic leader, she’s been a fantastic role model. And when she comes in, she has an impact on the game.”

So is it a story of what is or what might have been?

Lester is not a person of many words, at least around those she doesn’t know, perhaps merely combining her newfound business skills with an interest in writing by saving her deepest thoughts for a recounting of her own someday. But as student of American history, albeit more the Civil War era than the 18th century, perhaps she would appreciate being part of a comparison that involves Ben Franklin.

Another student of history, French, English and business, albeit one whose ability to get his foot on a well-placed cross in front of goal is debatable, Franklin is at the center of a famous anecdote about the rising and setting sun. Noting the difficulty of telling the difference between the two in paintings, he remarked during the signing of the Constitution that he was convinced the sun in front of him in that instance was rising.

Is Lester’s smile in that photo the rising or setting sun? Is it the final upbeat coda in a story of what could have been? Or as a week begins that promises both a championship game and news of job offers, is it just the start of her time?

Soccer is coming to an end for Molly Lester. Everything it gave and everything it took helped shape what comes next.

“I always knew the end was coming, but it is a little weird,” she said.

NEWTON, Mass. — Boston College’s reward for earning the biggest win of the season by spending two hours in a frigid rain that ceased only when it turned to snow Thursday night? A chance to do it all over again Sunday afternoon.

To borrow a thought from Alec Baldwin, it beats a set of steak knives.

Behind first-half goals from Gibby Wagner and Julia Bouchelle and a strong defensive effort throughout, No. 21 Boston College defeated No. 7 Wake Forest 2-0 to edge the Demon Deacons for fourth place in the ACC final standings. As a result, the Eagles earned the right to host the Demon Deacons on Sunday in an ACC tournament quarterfinal instead of flying south to Wake’s home turf.

The setting at Newton Soccer Field started to take on a Bing Crosby-Burl Ives holiday feel as the snow fell more rapidly late in the game, and after four consecutive one-goal losses that dropped the Eagles from title contention to the middle of the table, closing the regular season with the win against the Demon Deacons and one five days earlier against NC State provided a much needed gift.

“You never like to talk about postseason,” coach Alison Foley said. “But we needed to win the last two games because it would set us up in such a great situation for postseason, both ACC tournament and NCAA tournament.”

They couldn’t have asked for a better script. Even with freshman center back Casey Morrison nursing a hamstring injury that led her to sit out the first half Thursday, Boston College can defend as well as any team in the ACC or the nation (the Eagles entered the game 14th nationally in goals-against average, one spot behind Boston University). The problem has been that it’s difficult to win 0-0 games.

Only once all season has Boston College allowed more than one goal, a 3-2 loss at Miami, but it had also scored multiple goals just eight times in 16 games prior to Thursday and watched its offensive output tumble from 2.04 goals per game last season to 1.69 goals per game this season.

So if Wagner’s goal in the 11th minute off an assist from Victoria DiMartino was a bonus, representing the earliest the Eagles had gotten on the scoreboard through the entire conference season, Bouchelle’s goal in the 32nd minute off an assist from Stephanie McCaffrey was about as unexpected a turn of events as the thunder that accompanied the snow later in the evening. But that two-goal cushion, well earned by the Eagles, particularly Gibson Wagner, aggressively pressing the issue in the Demon Deacons’ end of the field, allowed the defense breating room to do its job.

And do its job it did. The ACC is full of talented goal scorers and creative playmakers, but Wake Forest presents a unique challenge with forwards Katie Stengel and Rachel Nuzzolese. Both are big, agile attackers who can beat defenders with the ball at their feet or test keepers from distance, as Nuzzolese did in forcing Boston College keeper Jillian Mastroianni to come up with a fantastic save on a potential game-tying strike headed just under the crossbar in the first half. Yet that effort was about the only time either Nuzzolese, who has eight goals on the season, or Stengel, a Hermann Trophy candidate who leads the conference with 13 goals in 16 games, threatened the goal.

“I give a lot of credit to our back line,” Foley said. “We watched a lot of film on Stengel and Nuzzolese. We talked about their tendencies. We talked about the importance of staying engaged on Stengel and [holding midfielder] Kate McCarthy coming down and doubling down and giving good cover when one center back steps with her. We never wanted any space; we always wanted someone to step with her every time she went for the ball.”

As much as the goals set the tone, the effort of the match was turned in by Boston College senior center back Alyssa Pember. Sidelined earlier this season by an ankle injury that leaves her managing pain more than waiting for a clean bill of health, Pember seemed connected at the hip with Stengel any time the latter came near the ball.

“I thought Pember did a great job,” Foley said. “She orchestrated the defense back there, and I thought she was really good.”

Boston College has shown itself to be a very good team with a very erratic finishing touch this season, a combination bound to lead to frustration at times. The Eagles aren’t necessarily any better than a respectable record indicates (and finishing fourth is an accomplishment in a league where the ninth-place team that misses the conference tournament, Miami, is No. 24 in NCAA RPI), but they have every reason to believe that but for a break here or a break there, 1-0 losses against both Duke and North Carolina could have gone the other way and left them alone in first place. That’s the peril of being a team that relies on defense.

“It’s funny, we beat UNC down at UNC 3-2 [last year], but when we lost here 1-0, this was a much better game for us, believe it or not,” Foley said of last week’s loss to the Tar Heels. “But results are results at this time of the year. It’s really nice when you can play as well as we played tonight and get the result.”

So nice that they’ll do it again in a couple of days with a trip to Cary, N.C. and the semifinals on the line.

So long Sulphur

McMurry Park in Sulphur, La.

Wrapping up the NPF playoffs:

Lauren Lappin and Megan Willis reflect on playing in Japan in and around the devastating earthquake/tsunami.

Stacy May-Johnson takes (at least) one more turn at bat in NPF.

Life on the road suits NPF Diamonds.

Alisa Goler plays beyond her years in opening win for Bandits.

Monica Abbott is getting more impossible to beat. And yes, I said more impossible.

From the road …

Best. Pregame. Meal. Ever. Homemade crawfish stew at the NPF championship series.

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