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Archive for May, 2012

Still to be decided: America East (Boston University/Albany), Southland (Texas State/McNeese State/Sam Houston State), Big South (Coastal Carolina/Charleston Southern), SWAC (Jackson State/Mississippi Valley State).

All seeds hosting

1. California: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Alabama: Notre Dame, South Alabama, UT-Martin
3. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
6. Tennessee: North Carolina, UAB, BIG SOUTH
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, Bethune-Cookman
8. Oregon: Syracuse, Boston University, Portland State
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, LIU
10. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
11. Arizona: Texas Tech, BYU, Iona
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Northwestern, Miami (OH)
13. Missouri: DePaul, Auburn, Illinois State
14. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
15. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, SWAC
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, FGCU

Last five in: Northwestern, Arkansas, Houston, UCF, UAB
First five out: Maryland, Kansas, Illinois, Purdue, Fresno State

Northwestern gets to .500 after sweeping Illinois. Wildcats played 42 of 54 games against RPI top-100 teams and 24 games against top-50 teams. Only Arkansas can match the top-50 number among the teams closest to the bubble. Northwestern’s wins against Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and UMass, along with late momentum (8-2 in last 10 games) put it over the top.

I’ve gone back and forth on Arkansas and Maryland. Arkansas seems like the product of conference strength — play enough games against SEC RPI giants and you pick off some wins, in this case three against the RPI top 25 and two against the RPI top 10. You can spin a 3-14 record against the RPI top 25 a lot of ways. I’d probably spin it another way, but in projecting what the committee is most likely to do, those wins carry weight.

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Using strongest remaining seeds and/or teams in best championship position in one-bid leagues.

1. California: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Alabama: Notre Dame, South Alabama, UT-Martin
3. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
6. Tennessee: North Carolina, UAB, Radford
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, Bethune-Cookman
8. Oregon: Syracuse, BYU, Portland State
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, LIU
10. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
11. Arizona: Texas Tech, Boston University, Iona
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Maryland, Central Michigan
13. Missouri: DePaul, Auburn, Illinois State
14. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, Mississippi Valley State
15. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, FGCU/Kennesaw

Last in: South Alabama, Arkansas, Maryland, Houston, UCF
First out: Illinois, Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin,

Flipping Alabama/ASU for now, although that’s still fluid. ASU is 4-4 vs. RPI top 10, 14-6 vs. RPI top 25. Alabama is 4-2 vs. RPI top 10, 10-4 vs. RPI top 25. Flip of the coin.

Not sold on Florida State as the No. 16 after it fails to win either ACC regular season or conference tournament, but a loss to No. 25 Georgia Tech in ACC semis (score notwithstanding) doesn’t seem like an RPI killer. Assuming Seminoles were ahead beforehand, and with Washington on its Pac-12 bye week, things may not change even if common sense suggests it should.

Bumping Illinois out after two losses against Northwestern, along with South Alabama picking up two more top-100 wins in reaching Sun Belt final.

Flipping UCLA and Arizona from previous projection after UCLA splits first two at Oregon and Arizona splits first two at home vs. Oregon State.

Also correcting the conference flub in the previous projection that had two ACC teams in Knoxville.

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A quick projection before conference tournaments hit full swing. All seeds hosting regionals this year.

1. California: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Harvard
2. Arizona State: Michigan, San Diego State, Valparaiso
3. Alabama: Notre Dame, UAB, UT-Martin
4. Oklahoma: Tulsa, Arkansas, North Dakota State
5. Tennessee: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Radford
6. Texas: Oregon State, Texas State, Lehigh
7. Florida: South Florida, UCF, FGCU
8. Oregon: Syracuse, BYU, Portland State/Saint Mary’s
9. Texas A&M: LSU, Houston, Robert Morris
10. Arizona: Texas Tech, Boston University, Iona
11. UCLA: Hawaii, Hofstra, Long Beach State
12. Louisville: Kentucky, Maryland, Ball State
13. Missouri: DePaul, Illinois, Northern Iowa
14. Louisiana-Lafayette: Stanford, Baylor, Mississippi Valley State
15. Georgia: Georgia Tech, UMass, Georgia Southern
16. Florida State: Washington, Mississippi State, Delaware State

Last in: Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland
First out: Kansas, South Alabama, Purdue, Wisconsin

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